50 percent statistic untrue?


"Pollster Louis Harris has written, "The idea that half of American marriages are doomed is one of the most specious pieces of statistical nonsense ever perpetuated in modern times."
"It all began when the Census Bureau noted that during one year, there
were 2.4 million marriages and 1.2 million divorces. Someone did the
math without calculating the 54 million marriages already in existence,
and presto, a ridiculous but quotable statistic was born.
"Harris concludes, "Only one out of eight marriages will end in divorce.
In any single year, only about 2 percent of existing marriages will break up."
--J. Allan Petersen in Better Families, quoted on the Christianity.Net home page, "Preaching Resources," Copyright(c) 1996 by Christianity Today, Inc./LEADERSHIP journal -- Summer 1996 Vol.XVII, No.3, Page 69

Jeanne Hinds (jmhinds@nando.net) wrote:
: That divorce stastitic (50% of marriage end in divorce) has been
: debunked by legitimate researchers due to its poor data analysis. When
: divorces are tracked by *year* in which the couple married, the divorce
: rate is closer to 18- 22%. And the reason why combined divorce
: statistics have risen over the years is due to the advent of no-fault
: divorces. Marriages had a tendency of staying together when alimony
: was more of a reality but with no-fault divorces, divorce became much
: more easier to acquire and many people exited long-standing marriages.
[Note- this "debunking" has itself been debunked. Probably more than 22% of people have _already_ been divorced]

Basically, it's very hard to say what the divorce rate is because there are several different ways to measure it, and because the constant question is, what do you use as the denominator of the fraction or ratio? Do you weigh people getting divorced per year against the number of people who are getting married that same year, or against people who got married when the divorcing people got married, or against everyone who is married, or who ever has been, or do you try to project how many people who are getting married _will_ divorce in the future, disregarding older people who are in more stable marriages?

Taking the number of marriages per year and comparing it with the number of divorces per year is very often done in the media, often just using a single county or city (which brings in the factor that people select certain counties or states for both marriage and divorce that aren't necessarily where they both live). A researcher who corresponded with me on this question likened this technique to "an apple-orange comparison ... like comparing the number of falling acorns to the number of new oak trees planted each year; it doesn't take into account that falling acorns come from oaks already growing. Around 2% of existing marriages in the U.S. fail each year."

The easiest rate to calculate is divorce per year per capita, or per marriage, but that figure is really only useful for comparing against other states or countries or, not as reliably, other decades.
--John Crouch

"42.7 percent of all statistics are made up on the spot."
--The Hon. W. Richard Walton, Sr.

And, along the same lines:
"I really shouldn't tell a Sufi story without quoting it precisely - but I've got about a dozen Sufi books and can't take time to look it up. Anyway, one of the stories reminds me of the people who
want to believe ridiculous statistics just because they're from "studies"
instead of believing what's right there in their face in they're willing to see it.

"Nasrudin's neighbor came over and asked to borrow his donkey.
Nasrudin said the donkey was not there.
At that moment, the donkey brayed.
The man said, "the donkey is here; I just heard him bray."
To which Nasrudin replied, "Who are you going to believe? Me or a donkey?"

"So I'll keep going right to the source (the donkey), the real people,
instead of what somebody else reports ... ."

Peggy Vaughan - http://www.vaughan-vaughan.com
Quoted from the Coalition for Marriage, Family and Couples Education, LLC (CMFCE) Website: http://www.smartmarriages.com
Originally posted and maintained by Americans for Divorce Reform; now maintained by John Crouch. You can call me at (703) 528-6700 or e-mail me through my law office's web site.
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